PUBLISHEDJAN 25, 2020, 5:00 AM SGT
This is an edited transcript of the 24th Gordon Arthur
Ransome Oration by ex-foreign minister George Yeo in Singapore in Jan 2020
This oration was originally planned to be held in Hong Kong
last December in conjunction with an event co-organised by the Academies of
Medicine of Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong. Unfortunately, that event had to
be cancelled because of the unsettled situation in Hong Kong.
No one expected the protests which began in June last year
to become so big and to last so long. As a legislator of many years, I decided
to download the Extradition Bill and read it for myself. Frankly, I did not
find the proposed amendments to existing laws unreasonable. It did not seem
right that one could commit rape or murder in China and find sanctuary in Hong
Kong. However, most Hong Kongers viewed the Bill differently and
were outraged that Chief Executive Carrie Lam was determined to get it passed
despite mass opposition. Looking back, the Bill was only the spark that set off
a forest fire. For many years after the return of Hong Kong to China in 1997,
the fuel load in the forest had been building up. Social injustice had gotten
worse. Most parents no longer believed that their children could do better than
them. As a result, there is not a sense of hope and, without a sense of hope,
society turns sour.
After leaving government in 2011, I joined Robert Kuok in
Hong Kong. My wife and I shuttle back and forth between the two cities. Hong
Kong has become for us a second home. We now have our own social circle there,
including a number of young Hong Kongers interested in politics. Some of them
are yellow, some are blue; all feel deeply for Hong Kong. We ourselves have developed an affection for Hong Kong and
its people, and decided, after my retirement as chairman of Kerry Logistics
last year, to buy an apartment near Hong Kong University. Like many others, we
were shocked by the rapid deterioration of Hong Kong in the past eight months.
Unlike many others, we remain cautiously optimistic for Hong Kong's long-term
future because of its special position half-in and half-out of China and the
resilience of its people. It is, however, not my intention to talk principally about
Hong Kong today. The reason for my raising Hong Kong is because there are
larger, deeper forces at work in Hong Kong which affect the whole world. We
have to be mindful of them because they affect us in Singapore too. These
forces are unleashed by technology and challenge us morally.
I would like to highlight four in particular - the social
media revolution, fragmentation and reconfiguration of human society, growing
wealth and income inequality, and mass manipulation by new masters of the
universe.
SOCIAL MEDIA REVOLUTION
When the Internet arrived in the 1990s, many saw it as
liberating. It became much easier to access information. Patients now google
their symptoms before seeing doctors and everything the doctor says and
prescribes can be counterchecked on the Net. In the same way, teachers are challenged by students, and
government leaders by the citizenry. The social media revolution has disrupted
old relationships. Everywhere, we see hierarchies breaking down. Old institutions,
once preserved and sustained by ritual, secrecy, information asymmetry,
hypocrisy, deception and force are being corroded. When Pope Francis smacked an
Asian lady twice on the arm after she grabbed him by his sleeve in St Peter's
Square and refused to let go, it immediately became news. The Pope apologised
the day after. A mainland Chinese friend of mine told me it made the Pope look
quite good because it showed him to be human. It is just as well that Francis,
since becoming Pope, frequently declares himself a sinner.
Old leadership models have become obsolete. Whether it is
Pope Francis, President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Elon Musk
or Greta Thunberg, we are in a new situation. It sometimes seems as if a
necessary qualification for leadership is to be publicly a sinner. The term
used nowadays is "authenticity" although that too is often
manufactured.
FRAGMENTATION AND RECONFIGURATION OF SOCIETY
Human society takes time to adjust to new technologies. The
IT revolution shows no sign of abating. In fact, it is setting off concomitant
change in other technological fields like biomedicine, material science and
manufacturing. These changes in turn act upon one another, often in unexpected
ways, causing even further disruption to the old order.
In his analysis of economic cycles, Austrian economist
Joseph Schumpeter wrote about creative destruction. What we see all around is
the destructive phase of the technological revolution which is fragmenting
human society. This fragmentation... defines the age we live in.
Going back to Hong Kong, what characterises the protest
movement is its fluid, leaderless, organic character. Social media reinforces
beliefs and biases. Those who are yellow watch yellow sites, get angrier and
become more yellow. For many, police officers have become the villains and even
their family members are targeted.
For those who are blue, the demonstrators are cockroaches to
be smacked down. Views become highly, absurdly polarised. Unmediated positive
feedback loops quickly become unstable. The same phenomenon is evident in the
US, Taiwan during the recent elections, the UK when the Brexit debate was
raging, and in many other countries.
Fragmentation is, however, not the end state. Gradually, the
fragments recombine in new ways, similar to the pattern of neural networks.
Nodes grow and compete with other nodes with which they are linked through
multiple pathways. There is a biological quality about these new forms of
organisation.
It is almost as if we are witnessing a Cambrian explosion of
diverse organisational species. Those which successfully adapt to the new
environment proliferate while others reach dead ends. Apple, Samsung and Huawei
have very different organisational structures and systems. Which will still be
successful 10 years from now, no one can foretell but for sure there will be
new winners and losers.
Losing faith in existing institutions, there is at one level
a reversion to tribal networks of trust. Some of these networks are based on
ethnicity and religion. We also see new tribal networks forming around specific
causes, such as LGBT rights, climate activism, even veganism.
Positive or negative, politicians everywhere are quick to
pick up populist causes to win votes, undermining the civil society which is
the bedrock of democracy. Political systems are subject to the same creative
destruction. Western democratic systems no longer function well. Established
political parties are fissuring. In many democracies, domestic political debate
has become toxic.
At all levels, from the family to companies to political
structures, we see continuing fragmentation, experimentation and
reconfiguration. The process can be described as Darwinian.
GROWING WEALTH AND INCOME INEQUALITY
The third force impacting society today is growing wealth
and income inequality. The impact of technological change on individual fortunes is
uneven. Once upon a time, hardworking, responsible employees could expect their
lives to improve year by year. Today, many feel they are struggling to run up a
downward-moving escalator. Those whose work is repetitive are at great risk.
Their jobs can be outsourced to countries where labour is cheaper. Or be
replaced by robots and algorithms.
In contrast, those who are well placed to seize new
opportunities created by fragmentation prosper. For example, among new
graduates, computer engineers command among the highest salaries. When we look
at the league table of the most successful companies in the world, the top
positions are increasingly held by those in technology. In Singapore, Sea,
which is a company specialising in gaming and e-commerce - a company which most
Singaporeans have not heard of - has quite suddenly become one of the top
companies, with a capitalisation half that of Singtel.
Growing inequality of wealth and income exacerbates existing
class and ethnic divisions in society. The "yellow vest" protests in
France are part of this phenomenon. There are eerie similarities between the
protests in Hong Kong and those far away in Barcelona and Santiago.
MASS MANIPULATION BY THE NEW MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE
The fourth force challenging us is the way big data and
social media are being used to manipulate the way we think.
The first phase of the Internet revolution opened the
floodgates to information access and eroded old power structures. For a short
while, there was an exhilarating sense of equalisation. That phase has ended.
We are discovering how our minds are being manipulated by new masters of the
universe.
Companies like Amazon, Google, Facebook, Alibaba and Tencent
make use of the enormous data they collect to squeeze out competitors and
influence our preferences, often without our knowledge.
In Singapore and
elsewhere, a very high percentage of ad revenues is cornered by Google and
Facebook because of the eyeballs they have captured.
A few weeks after the HK unrest started, Facebook, YouTube
and Twitter, in quick succession, blocked hundreds of sites which they claim
besmirched protesters, giving the reason that these sites originated from
China. Sites which supported the protesters were untouched. It is unclear who
made these decisions but I don't think they were made in Hong Kong. There is no
doubt that the way friction is increased or reduced in different parts of the
Internet can significantly sway public opinion.
Trapped in an old mindset, the
Hong Kong government was unable or unwilling to intervene.
Other governments have no such inhibitions. India routinely
shuts down the Internet in various cities when there are riots. When mass
demonstrations erupted in Iran after fuel prices were raised, the government
switched off Facebook, causing US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to threaten
sanctions on those responsible. In the battle for hearts and minds in Iran, the
US actively intervenes in the way Facebook, Twitter and Instagram cover
developments in the country. The big powers devote considerable resources to
the exploitation of social media for political purposes.
In 2013, Edward Snowden revealed the existence of Prism, an
incredible system developed by the US National Security Agency to collect
Internet information worldwide. All governments would love to have such a
capability but none can hope to, and certainly not on the same scale as the US
except, possibly, China one day.
A key reason for the US campaign against Huawei is the fear
that China may not only develop a similar surveillance capability but that
Chinese equipment and Chinese systems will make it harder for the US to
maintain the same surveillance reach. For some countries, like Singapore, the
only safe assumption is that all systems expose us to external intelligence
penetration. We have to find ways to protect ourselves and accept that nothing
is foolproof. The challenge is made much harder with increasing dependence on
clouds.
China makes no pretence about controlling the Internet. In
fact, China is probably the first country to make extensive use of big data for
national governance. Big data analysis has enabled China to overcome a problem
which afflicted its governance system over the centuries. Because of the size
of the country, there are many layers of administration, making it hard for
Beijing to know what's happening on the ground. Corrupt officials often succeed
in covering up problems by working with counterparts one level above to
suppress complaints. When problems do reach the centre, it is because they have
already become big and serious. To overcome this defect, Chinese dynasties developed
elaborate systems of inspection. Wrongs did get righted but they were so rare,
the stories are immortalised in Chinese operas. With big data analysis, it is
easier for Beijing to be alerted earlier.
For many Westerners, China has become George Orwell's 1984.
For many Chinese, the loss of privacy is a price worth paying for safety and
convenience. There is probably no safer big country than China today. But will
the centralisation of control lead to massive abuse one day? The Chinese
Communist Party is not immune to the same forces of change in the world. It has
to evolve in response to new circumstances. By cracking down on corruption and
re-establishing moral authority, President Xi Jinping has bought time for China
and the Communist Party.
In the US, what intelligence and law enforcement agencies
are allowed to do is the subject of a raging debate. In Europe, the General
Data Protection Regulation provides some safeguard to the misuse or abuse of
data collection. This may make it more difficult for Europe to catch up with
the US and China in AI. But the use of facial recognition technology is not
likely to be held back because it is simply too useful.
Thus we see in the world today a range of responses to the
challenge of big data, in particular, the loss of privacy and the mass
manipulation of public opinion. In Singapore, the Protection from Online
Falsehoods and Manipulation Act, commonly known as Pofma, is a brave attempt to
stem the same incoming tide. It is not easy but we should not stop trying.
MORAL CHALLENGE
The IT revolution is enabling the collection, storage and
processing of data on an unprecedented scale. It is almost as if nothing that
happens will ever be forgotten. This leap in the collective intelligence of
human beings has a god-like quality about it. What the technological revolution
has unleashed is two-edged. There is always a temptation to weaponise the
newest technology in order to gain a military advantage. It takes time for the
moral sense of human beings to catch up with new technologies and to tame them.
In the last century, mechanisation, mass production and nuclear energy led to
the slaughter of over a hundred million people.
There is an air of hubris in the way the new masters of the
universe view their growing capabilities. This hubris infects us at all levels
- state agencies which are carried away by the use of technology; politicians
who rely on clever data analytics to manipulate voters; generals who fantasise
about unstoppable spears and impregnable shields; economists who believe the
manipulation of money supply can rid us of economic cycles; corporate leaders
whose ambitions know no bounds; successful tribes and wealthy individuals who
are convinced of their own genetic superiority; scientists who tinker with germ
lines to improve the quality of human beings; and computer engineers who see AI
as the ultimate.
MEMENTO MORI
It is said that in Roman times, a victorious general in a
triumphal procession would have behind him a slave whispering into his ears
"memento mori", which means "remember, you will die". It is
a warning against hubris.
Whether as parents, teachers, doctors, government ministers
or corporate leaders, we must not lose our moral sense in the pursuit of
achievement and success. It is important to contemplate human weakness, and the
meaning of suffering and death. It is in pathos that we forge group solidarity.
In an age of fragmentation, solidarity is vital. In everything we do, we must
not ignore those who are wounded or have fallen by the wayside. Without this
social glue, civilised society breaks down.
Tectonic change has caused the old edifices to crumble into
smaller pieces. We must rebuild but with the expectation that the ground will
continue to quake. Above all, we need solidarity which is the instinct to
connect and bond.
THE GREATEST DANGER TO HUMANKIND
Human society cannot be organised on the basis of law and
the market alone. Laws only mark outer boundaries. Laws can require parents to
look after children. Laws cannot make parents love their children, or vice
versa. The market is a powerful way of allocating resources in a complex
economy. But the market alone cannot solve many human problems. Human society
needs solidarity as a cohesive force to bind human beings together in
cooperative effort. In Confucian teaching, stress is put on five core values: benevolence,
justice, proper behaviour, wisdom and trust. All moral systems incorporate and
elaborate these values. These values are deep in our nature and probably
encoded in our DNA.
To remain relevant, these moral systems, which include
religion and ideology, must adapt to new challenges thrown up by technology. Take proper behaviour as an example. For human beings to
interact, we need protocols facilitating communication and cooperation. When
individuals are masked, whether in public or on the Internet, protocols are
hard to establish. In anonymous settings, individuals become irresponsible and
abusive. Without a moral sense, the new freedom which technology offers
destroys itself.
In all fields, we need moral leadership. The great danger is
the revolution in technology outpacing the evolution of our moral sense.
Whether in the private, public or people sector, in grappling with economic and
technical questions, we should never de-emphasise moral considerations.
It is common nowadays for decisions to be taken in an amoral
way. An indifferent, amoral approach in a period of rapid technological change
is possibly the greatest danger to humankind today. We must not be beguiled by
a so-called, post-truth world. The more complex the world becomes, the more must
we affirm that which is at the core of our humanity.
