Troubled waters in the region

By Kor Kian Beng China Bureau Chief In Beijing

YET another spat has erupted on Asia's maritime fronts, one of many in the global headlines.

The stand-off between Taiwan and the Philippines in the South China Sea continues a trend of strife, sparking fears of conflict in the region. In the East China Sea, China and Japan are fighting over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands.

Though territorial disputes have existed in both seas for decades, claimant states were not as assertive as they are now. Why?

Reasons for escalation

THE first sign of trouble surfaced around 1992, when countries scrambled for territories in the South China Sea, to pre-empt the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos), which specified maritime zones and sovereignty jurisdiction to come into effect in 1994.

In 1992, China passed a domestic law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone. Asean issued its first statement on the South China Sea in 1992 over the rising tensions between China and Vietnam over oil exploration.

Disputes heightened again in 2009 due to a deadline set by a United Nations body for coastal states wishing to make claims for extended continental shelves beyond their 200-nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).

The most alarming claim was China's, which included for the first time a historical map with a "nine-dash line" covering some 80 per cent of the South China Sea.

Chinese pressure on American oil companies from 2008 to stop assisting Vietnam in offshore oil development, and China's opposition to the US policy of conducting surveillance in China's EEZ, triggered the entry of the United States into the arena.

At the July 2010 Asean Regional Forum, then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington had a "national interest" in the South China Sea and called for a peaceful resolution to ensure freedom of navigation.

Her comments spawned a perception that the US was out to contain China's rise and influence within its own backyard.

Regional security expert Carl Thayer told The Straits Times that the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis on the US reportedly emboldened some Chinese to assert that it was time to press a declining America.

But Shanghai-based foreign policy expert Yang Cheng said the US stance has also emboldened China's neighbours to take a more strident approach against Beijing over the South China Sea.

Domestic nationalism has fuelled more assertive sovereignty claims as well, say analysts.

Another reason often cited is the competition for natural resources like oil, gas and fisheries.

How bad can it get?

THE tense stand-off between the navies of China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal in April last year raised real fears of a conflict at sea.

Since then, there have been countless reports of incidents involving fishermen and coast guards of claimant states.

The tensions have sparked a regional arms build-up, while China has also stepped up its naval exercises in response to a similar ramp-up by the US.

A conflict would affect shipping activity in the region and cause insurance rates to rise, and could also have a negative impact on South-east Asia's economies and its trade links with China.

But Peking University international relations expert Zha Daojiong said he does not see the disputes escalating into conflicts.

"No side wants to be the first party to go overboard, firing the first shot and preparing for an enlarged military conflict," he said.

But the strife has claimed a casualty: Asean unity, after the July 2012 meeting of foreign ministers failed to produce a joint communique for the first time, over host Cambodia's refusal to include the disputes in the document.

Analysts say the grouping's internal differences have allowed external powers to play Asean states against one another, with some adopting hedging strategies by encouraging the US to remain engaged so as to balance China.

The solutions

THE hope among many now is on getting China and Asean members to agree to a binding Code of Conduct, despite floundering efforts in recent years.

On its own, the Philippines is seeking international arbitration to declare China's moves in the oil-rich waters as "unlawful" under Unclos.

Professor Zha, however, thinks that a "solution" - such as an agreement to settle the disputes - is not within sight any time soon.

"Just about every party has put forward its hardline stance on this so frequently that it stands to 'lose' by being the first to step back," he added.