The Straits Times Published on Apr 06, 2013
The nature of inequality is changing and the pressure to
take from the rich to give to the poor looks set to grow. Rachel Chang dissects
the challenges ahead.
THE
millennium was a turning point for economic inequality in Singapore.
From
the year 2000, an income gap that was narrowing turned the corner and began to
widen. The wages of skilled, top earners began to pull away from unskilled
workers at the bottom, whose incomes stagnated. This
is the story of inequality in Singapore that the Gini coefficient alone - the
most widely used measure of inequality - does not tell.
Singapore
has always had a high Gini coefficient of over 0.4 due to its open economic
structure. The Gini coefficient plots inequality from a scale of zero to 1,
with zero representing completely equal incomes across a population. Singapore's
Gini actually rose more briskly in the 1990s - from 0.408 in 1990 to 0.442 in
2000, than in the noughties, when it went to 0.472 in 2010. But
it is only in the past decade that a gulf has opened up between skilled and
unskilled workers.
Globalisation
and a technological boom have powered the "skills premium" that
highly qualified workers command worldwide. In
Singapore, it collided with local factors of an economic restructuring, a
liberal intake of cheap foreign workers and an ageing demographic to explosive
effect.
Singapore
Management University economist Hoon Hian Teck's research shows that from 2000
to 2010, the economy moved decisively away from manufacturing to high-end
services. For
example, foreign direct investment in the manufacturing sector, as a ratio of
gross domestic product, shrank from 36 per cent to 21 per cent over this
period, but grew in its financial and insurance services sector from 36 per
cent to 43 per cent. This exacerbated the skills premium for high-end workers
as demand for them grew faster than supply, he explains.
The
millennial turning point is also reflected in the ratio of average incomes of
the top fifth of earners compared to the bottom fifth. This
fell from 14.4 in 1980 to 10.1 in 2000, before U-turning. It has risen through
the last 10 years; as of last year, top earners made 13 times what bottom
earners made.
Thirteen
years after its turning point, inequality has entered a new phase of urgency,
say observers. Unlike
in the past, notes Nominated MP Laurence Lien, income inequality is no longer
set to a backdrop of a "rising tide that lifts all boats". Then,
"most individuals and families felt that their plight was improving all
the time and social mobility was higher", says the chief executive of the
Lien Foundation. Now, there is wage stagnation and some depression, not just
for those on a low income, but for a wider group.
The 'inequality' word
FROM
2000 to last year, as the wage gap grew, the word "inequality" was
conspicuously absent from the Government's annual Budget statement.Competitiveness,
rather than redistribution, was the order of the day. Following a global trend,
top income tax rates were lowered throughout the decade from 28 per cent in
2000 to 20 per cent in 2006 for economic attractiveness.
But
last year, the "inequality" word reared its head - three times at
that, in Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam's Budget speech then.
This year, he said it five times.
More
noticeably, his rhetoric was sharply different.
In
2011, responding to MPs' concerns over the income gap, Mr Tharman said that
"(income inequality) is something we should be concerned with. But what
matters most is not income inequality itself, but whether we succeed in raising
incomes and living standards for all Singaporeans, including and especially the
lower-income groups".
In
this year's Budget, which promised more social spending while hiking taxes on
luxury cars and investment properties, Mr Tharman said that inequality is
growing everywhere - but "it matters more to us because Singapore is not
just a city but also a nation. We must take further steps to temper
inequality". Observers
see a new direction - and a new determination - in the Government's
redistributive efforts.
In
the past few years, it has curbed the inflow of foreign labour, cajoled
companies to invest in enhancing productivity, and expanded its skills training
programme to "upgrade" workers.
It
is also redistributing significantly straight from government coffers to
low-income and older workers' pay cheques, through schemes such as the Workfare
Income Supplement, the Special Employment Credit and the Wage Credit.
"The
Government deserves a lot of credit for really pushing the restructuring this
time. There is a lot of resources being put in here," says Institute of
Policy Studies research fellow Tan Meng Wah.
But
economists and experts point to blind spots, and say it remains to be seen if
the Government's new zeal can keep up with inequality's own momentum. The
effort to boost productivity should raise incomes, but "this does not mean
that nothing else needs to be done because rising wages is only one part of the
problem", says the chief executive of Centennial Asia Advisors, Mr Manu
Bhaskaran. The
retired, elderly poor, for example, will not benefit from higher wages - but
will suffer the inflation that comes in tandem, he notes. This
group, who are both old and poor, will continue to grow in what Mr Tharman has
said is a unique, local challenge.
Due
to Singapore's rapid development, unskilled workers are largely also ageing
ones. Of those who did not complete secondary school in the workforce, two-
thirds are aged 50 and above. That
Singapore is now on the ageing downswing overall has also made its inequality
more visceral, says Dr Tan. "When
you are 20 years old and you see large differences in income around you, it's
okay. You're young, you can work harder and achieve that. But when you're 50,
it's a different dynamic," he notes.
Inequality
is a vicious circle of its own. Dr Tan notes that the income inequality of
earlier decades has led to a "wealth gap" now, where the rich enjoy a
steady stream of investment income that the poor do not. This wealth gap
"has an even greater psychological impact because we live so close to one
another", he notes. National
University of Singapore economist Hui Weng Tat points to a perfect storm of
high costs of living and high aspirations: "For a developed economy where
educational and aspirational levels of a large proportion of the population are
high, and affordability of major essentials such as housing and private
transport seems to be slipping away... significant resentment will undoubtedly
be focused on the extent of inequality that exists."
Studies
have found other psychological effects of inequality, such as reduced work
morale and lower productivity, he notes. "The disillusionment and
disappointment inevitably will be expressed at the polling booths." Former
chief statistician Paul Cheung says that a new "social distance" has
emerged in Singapore in the last decade, one which may be unbridgeable. "In
the past, you have HDB blocks next to the rich enclaves. Now you have enclaves
that even the middle class can't access, such as Sentosa Cove and other
'high-class' places."
Dr
Cheung, now a social work professor at the National University of Singapore,
adds: "Social class has become more distinct and stratified. This is a
serious issue for Singapore as it underpins all political and social
changes."
Tweaking social assistance
DURING
the previous term of government, social spending rose from $13 billion in 2006
to $21.5 billion in 2011. Currently, low-income families get $4 in transfers
for every $1 they pay in taxes. But
there still exists a wide public consensus that the Government is not
redistributing enough, and is too tight-fisted in its social assistance.
A
part of this is philosophical. Still evident in its new progressivity is the
Government's enduring ideological commitment to self-reliance and aversion to
handouts. Almost
all of its major new redistributive schemes are tied to being employed, and it
has ploughed resources into early childhood education and adult skills
training.
Its
"humanitarian" assistance - that is, handouts - remains minimal.
Public Assistance, given to the elderly with no one to depend on and who cannot
work, is $450 a month, after a $50 increment in this year's Budget. The
Lien Foundation's Mr Lien says that the Government can be much less
conservative in how it manages its social assistance programmes, like in its
use of endowment funds. It uses a percentage of investment returns from the
reserves to set up such funds. Then, only a percentage of these funds is spent
per year: a "doubly conservative" method that ensures that much less
is spent on social assistance than is available to be spent, he says.
Mr
Tharman has expressed the view that rather than being conservative, this
guarantees such social assistance programmes beyond the current term of
government - insuring them against the vagaries of populist pressures and
economic cycles. While
government transfers have grown in Singapore, this factor brings its Gini
coefficient down by only about 6 per cent, from 0.478 before transfers, to
0.459 after. This is a far smaller magnitude than the 30 per cent downward
effect that other Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries
achieve on average, says Prof Hui. Boosting
transfers will help acceptance of income inequality, adds SMU's Prof Hoon. This
is because inequality is then seen as a necessary way to generate the fiscal
resources needed to subsidise the disadvantaged, he says.
But
some People's Action Party (PAP) backbenchers urge the Government to continue
to stand firm against the political wind. "Big
and broad transfers might give you a lot of political capital, but where does
that take the country in 20 years' time?" says Moulmein-Kallang GRC MP
Edwin Tong. He argues that social assistance needs to be targeted and
means-tested, as opposed to blanket handouts. He
says: "Once you start giving, it's much harder to scale back. Look at
what's happening in the West. Why do we think we might be different?" PAP
MP Liang Eng Hwa (Holland-Bukit Timah GRC) says the Government's expansion of
social spending and redistribution may not keep up with growing public
expectations because it must distil a general "call for more" into
sustainable programmes.
In
his response to MPs after the Budget debate this year, Mr Tharman emphasised
that the Government will not attempt "progressivity or redistribution for
its own sake"; spending better is as important as how much it spends, he
added. "This
'Government must do more' thing is naturally everybody's call," says Mr
Liang. "Every Budget debate, MPs call for more, and that's because we see
that there are really those who need more. But it's also the Government's job
to make sure that when you do more, you're doing something that's responsible
and sustainable."
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